Monday, December 26, 2011

Dunning-Kruger Effect in the Olde Synodical Conference

Paul Wendland, NNIV Salesman,
is a member of the Moo herd, bovine in IQ,
ovine in courage.


Wikipedia:

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes.[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.


Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others" (p. 1127).[2] The effect is about paradoxical defects in cognitive ability, both in oneself and as one compares oneself to others...


Although the Dunning–Kruger effect was put forward in 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger have quoted Charles Darwin ("Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge")[3] and Bertrand Russell ("One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision")[4] as authors who have recognised the phenomenon.


UOJ is the path to Rome or Pasadena:
either route is the path to perdition.



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GJ - Indeed. Chesterton noted the same thing -


“Modesty has moved from the organ of ambition. Modesty has settled upon the organ of conviction where it was never meant to be. A man was meant to be doubtful about himself, but undoubting about the truth: this has been exactly reversed. Nowadays the part of a man that a man does assert is exactly the part he ought not to assert-himself. The part he doubts is exactly the part he ought not to doubt - the Divine Reason... The old humility was a spur that prevented a man from stopping: not a nail in his boot that prevented him from going on. For the old humility made a man doubtful about his efforts, which might make him work harder. But the new humility makes a man doubtful about his aims, which will make him stop working altogether.”
― G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy


LI gave me a name for this syndrome, which is difficult to miss in the Olde Synodical Conference. As James Tiefel said about the odious Christian Worship in the making, "I have the title, so I will do what I want."  I heard Tiefel make fun of The Lutheran Hymnal in his worship class. Tiefel and Iver Johnson moved forward with a hack job worse than the remake of The Jazz Singer:  the booze and broads edition of the hymnal.A sober analysis would say that TLH is vastly superior to Tiefel's Church Growth, feminist, Pietist parody.

The almost universal attitude among the clergy is - "I graduated from x seminary, so I have nothing left to learn." That could be Ft. Wayne versus all the others, St. Louis versus all the others, Mequon versus all the others, or the Little Schoolhouse on the Prairie versus all others.

Most of them have a favorite professor who stands between them and the Word of God, so they stick to the instructor's talking points. The same clergy are scornful of laity who have studied the Word of God decades longer, without an intervening filter. A genuine Lutheran will concede that the Holy Spirit teaches through the Word, but the incompetents wave their diplomas around: the Dunning-Kruger effect.

The Lutheran Church during the Reformation expected a high level of training for men to be professors or bishops. A doctorate was common. The current Synodical Conference leaders think their worthless MDiv degrees qualify them as experts on everything, even though they could not get a job teaching at a community college with that seminary diploma. They wangle their positions through politics, but imagine the office is their
weapon, not a challenge to devote a lifetime to scholarship.

The Dunning-Kruger effect explains why the LCMS, WELS, and ELS have abandoned Lutheran doctrine for Fuller or Rome, never acknowledging the five-decade slide into doctrinal torpor. They cannot even admit  what they have done, spending millions on subsidies to CG projects and tuition, millions more on conferences to bring more false doctrine into their parishes.



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Brett Meyer has left a new comment on your post "Dunning-Kruger Effect in the Olde Synodical Confer...":

Even the self titled conservatives in the (W)ELS have declared Siegbert W. Becker infallible.

Elevating doctrinal ignorance to an art form he said, "But universal and objective justification is one doctrine whose place in the victorious Christian life is clear. Wherever men teach that faith comes first as a condition that must be fulfilled or a work that must be done or even as a fact that must be recognized before forgiven [sic Becker - forgiveness ] is bestowed or becomes real, men will be trained to look into their own hearts for assurance rather than to the words and promises of God. If my sins are forgiven only if I first have faith then I have no solid foundation on which to rest my hope for eternal life. I must then know that I have faith before I can know that my sins are forgiven. But there are times when a Christian does not know that he has faith. And many people who think they have faith do not have it, and many that think they are not believers are believing children of God. In regard to our own faith we may be in error or filled with doubt. But there is nothing uncertain in the truth that is proclaimed in the Gospel. Your sin is taken away, wiped out, forgiven, cancelled, swallowed up in the empty grave in Joseph’s garden. To that we must cling. To that we can cling. On that we can build a solid hope that will not make us ashamed.
In times of temptation when I am no longer aware of my faith, when my heart tells me that I am an unbeliever, I have no place to turn for assurance if faith must come before forgiveness. But if forgiveness comes first, if it is always there, if it is true whether I believe it or not, I do not need to know whether I have faith or not before I can cling to God’s promise. I know that my sins are forgiven whether I feel forgiven or unforgiven. I know that my iniquity is pardoned whether I believe it or not. And when I know that, then I know also that I am a believer." Page 13
http://www.wlsessays.net/files/BeckerJustification.PDF 

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GJ - No wonder the WELS clergy and laity listened to Paul Calvin Kelm with rapture and awe. They had already been hynotized by Sig Becker, who did not understand faith, forgiveness, or the Means of Grace.

Pietism Begets Rationalism

Johann Salomo Semler, Pioneer of Lutheran Rationalism
From Wikipedia:

He was born at Saalfeld in Electoral Saxony, the son of a poor clergyman. He grew up in pietistic surroundings, which powerfully influenced him his life through, though he never became a Pietist. In his seventeenth year he entered the University of Halle, where he became the disciple, afterwards the assistant, and finally the literary executor of the orthodox rationalistic professor SJ Baumgarten. He also wrote Latin poems. In 1749 he accepted the position of editor, with the title of professor, of the Coburg official Gazette. But in 1751 he was invited to Altdorf as professor of philology and history, and in 1752 he became a professor of theology in Halle.

Pietism was identified with Biblical study, but the mothership, Halle University, turned into a school of rationalism in one generation. Why?

Pietism is just another form of Enthusiasm. Lacking a foundation in the Means of Grace, Pietism seeks certainty in experience, love, and good works. The attitude of doctrinal indifference eventually unites everyone on the basis of a common disbelief.

That is why ELCA can be in fellowship with the Moravian Pietists, the gay Episcopalians, the Methodists, WELS, and Missouri Synod.

That also explains why WELS can be in fellowship with Groeschel, Driscoll, Sweet, and Rick Warren, and Andy Stanley. Their defense - "We practice safe sects."

Mission Statement of a Moravian Pietist Congregation

Add UOJ and opposition to sound doctrine.

  • Living in Fellowship.
  • Growing in Christ.
  • Activating our family of faith in unity by Christ’s example of sharing, caring and praying.

I ran across this mission statement, above,  from a Moravian congregation in Emmaus, Pennsylvania. The wording reminded me of many similar expressions from WELS, LCMS, and ELS congregations:
  1. Inoffensive.
  2. Vague.
  3. Non-confessional.
Non-confessional is really anti-confessional, because the need to avoid all doctrinal discussions is the path to total indifference and apostasy.







Elisabeth’s Barrenness and Ours - Mark Steyn -
National Review Online.
Stein Seconds Ichabod's Birth Dearth Graphics



Elisabeth’s Barrenness and Ours - Mark Steyn - National Review Online:

We now live in Elisabeth’s world — not just because technology has caught up with the Deity and enabled women in their 50s and 60s to become mothers, but in a more basic sense. The problem with the advanced West is not that it’s broke but that it’s old and barren. Which explains why it’s broke. Take Greece, which has now become the most convenient shorthand for sovereign insolvency — “America’s heading for the same fate as Greece if we don’t change course,” etc. So Greece has a spending problem, a revenue problem, something along those lines, right? At a superficial level, yes. But the underlying issue is more primal: It has one of the lowest fertility rates on the planet. In Greece, 100 grandparents have 42 grandchildren — i.e., the family tree is upside down. In a social-democratic state where workers in “hazardous” professions (such as, er, hairdressing) retire at 50, there aren’t enough young people around to pay for your three-decade retirement. And there are unlikely ever to be again.


'via Blog this'

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GJ - The graphics below were done by someone else - forget the name - and the point has been made here many times. All the futuristic plans have been  based on more people making more money to pay for the inflated plans.

That wild thinking fits the school situation, government (unfunded) pensions, and the global economy.

The Left trained people to think of babies as costly burdens, so we slaughter them with abortion and the human pesticide pill, then let criminals across the border to rob, rape, and steal, as long as they do our house-cleaning for $5 an hour.

The Wexford Carol



 Wikipedia says:

 The Wexford Carol (Irish: Carúl Loch Garman, Carúl Inis Córthaidh) is a traditional religious Irish Christmas carol originating from County Wexford, and specifically, Enniscorthy (whence its other name), and dating to the 12th century.[1][unreliable source?] The subject of the song is that of the nativity of Jesus Christ. "The Wexford Carol" is one of the oldest extant Christmas carols in the European tradition. Traditions abound concerning the song. For many years, it was felt that only men should sing it.[citation needed] It was only at the current revival of all things Irish that this attitude changed. Many popular female artists, such as Loreena McKennitt, recorded the “Wexford Carol” during the 1990s. The song achieved a new popularity because of the work of William Grattan Flood (1859 - 1928), who was organist and musical director at St. Aidan's Cathedral in Enniscorthy. He transcribed the carol from a local singer, and had it published in the Oxford Book of Carols, putting Enniscorthy into most carol books around the world. The song is sometimes known by its first verse, "Good people all this Christmas time."


Good people all, this Christmas time,
Consider well and bear in mind
What our good God for us has done
In sending his beloved son
With Mary holy we should pray,
To God with love this Christmas Day
In Bethlehem upon that morn,
There was a blessed Messiah born
The night before that happy tide
The noble Virgin and her guide
Were long time seeking up and down
To find a lodging in the town
But mark right well what came to pass
From every door repelled, alas
As was foretold, their refuge all
Was but a humble ox's stall
Near Bethlehem did shepherds keep
Their flocks of lambs and feeding sheep
To whom God's angel did appear
Which put the shepherds in great fear
Arise and go, the angels said
To Bethlehem, be not afraid
For there you'll find, this happy morn
A princely babe, sweet Jesus, born
With thankful heart and joyful mind
The shepherds went the babe to find
And as God's angel had foretold
They did our Saviour Christ behold
Within a manger he was laid
And by his side a virgin maid
Attending on the Lord of Life
Who came on earth to end all strife
There were three wise men from afar
Directed by a glorious star
And on they wandered night and day
Until they came where Jesus lay
And when they came unto that place
Where our beloved Messiah lay
They humbly cast them at his feet
With gifts of gold and incense sweet.

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Joe Krohn's pick -




LutherRocks has left a new comment on your post "The Wexford Carol":

Thanks for posting. Another one of my favorites. Interesting setting.

Here is my favorite setting (partial to brass): http://youtu.be/PyZPqloAq_o

It starts at 1:13

Courthouse News Service:
Another Example of Excusing Foul Deeds.
A Warning for WELS, Missouri and the Little Sect on the Prairie



Courthouse News Service:


Financial Toll of Fatal Crash Keeps Growing
By JOE HARRIS

     BELLEVILLE, Ill. (CN) - The price tag for state taxpayers for a former state trooper's reckless fatal crash in November 2007 continues to grow.

     The Illinois Court of Claims awarded $700,000 to Kelly and Christine Marler, of Fayetteville. The Marlers' was the third vehicle involved in a fiery accident caused by former state trooper Matt Mitchell's losing control of his squad car while driving 120 mph, talking to his girlfriend on his cell phone and sending and receiving emails just 2.5 seconds before impact.

     Teenage sisters, Jessica Uhl, 18, and Kelli Uhl, 13, were the first ones hit by Mitchell and were pronounced dead at the scene. The Uhl family was awarded $8 million on Jan. 20 by the Illinois Court of Claims, the largest award ever granted by the court. Mitchell's car drove through the Uhls' car and then crashed into the Marlers' SUV. Mitchell pleaded guilty to reckless homicide.

     Mitchell, 33, filed a workers compensation claim for his injuries, which was denied. The outcry against Mitchell caused state lawmakers to pass a law prohibiting workers compensation claims by employees injured while committing a crime.

     Mitchell's total financial toll on the state actually started before 2007 and is more than $10 million. He was involved a no-injury accident in 2002 and another accident in 2003 that led to a $1.7 million judgment against the state, the Associated Press reported.



'via Blog this'

From Luther Rocks






Re-posted comments from Hells Bells...
 
Brett Meyer said...
The Universalism of the (W)ELS is taught in their central doctrine of Universal Justification. Their children are articulating this confession because the forgiveness of sins is salvation. Jay Garcia: "In a world where teens are always looked at by the eyes of the Devil a Wels youth rally is a blessing it shows that even in this world where sin is everywhere there teens that still believe that we can help show to other people that Jesus saved all and that the Father loves all of his children Like · Comment · July 24 at 9:10am

http://www.facebook.com/teenrally2011#!/teenrally2011?sk=wall 

Keynote speaker was (W)ELS Pastor Jeff Gunn
Luther Rocks: Rocketown: 'via Blog this'

The LCMS Birth Dearth:
A Report









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Links of interest:

Harrison to Anglicans:

Part I: 9:27-11:31 (end), continous slow decline 
for 40 years. White birth rate is the problem.
Be fruitful and multiply. Redouble our efforts.
Muslims 4.2 Whites 2.1 Goal for LCMS: 4.2 children per family
Part II start: baptized have 75% attrition rate from LCMS

Poor funding of seminaries:
Part II: 09:01-10:36 (end)

Anglican Church of N America:
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Student loan debt cuts down on number of children couples have:
Megan, 25, says they don’t want their 10-month-old daughter, Mary Margaret, to be burdened by such high debt when she goes to college. That’s one reason the Plano, Texas, couple is unsure whether they will have more children.
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Becoming Less Fruitful:  A Demographic History of the Evangelical Lutheran Synod, 1928-2008

Specifically, people assuming student loan debt tend to marry later, delay childbearing longer, and have fewer children 
during their lifetime.17

‘Anti-Dowry’?: The Effects of Student Loan Debt on Marriage and Childbearing
By Allan C. Carlson, Ph.D.*
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CONCORDIA HEALTH PLAN
Schedule V
Reimbursement of Eligible Charges for
Student Members and Their Enrolled Dependents Who Are Eligible
for Benefits Under This Schedule

Tubal ligation or vasectomy 80% (In-Network) 60% (Out-of-Network)
after deductible after deductible
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From 2000 to 2010, the population of white children nationwide declined by 4.3 million, while the population of Hispanic and Asian children grew by 5.5 million.

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One-third of U.S. births came from unplanned pregnancies, 
study shows
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"the no-child and one-child family...were prominent"...22 percent of women were able to have no 
children, and 22 percent had only one child."
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The 95 Theses of Claus Harms
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Firearm Sales Way Up During Holiday Season
December 13, 2011
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God's Gift to Mankind--Marriage:
Foreward by Mrs. Dorothy "Dort" Preus
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The stagnation of population growth in France in the 19th C, which is viewed as an anomaly among nations of the time by modern demographers, was recognized in France at that time as being the result of widespread syphilis in France, and not as the result of exaggerated rates of condom use, or of social planning, or of societal bias against small families. The religiosity of other nations kept the  syphilis rates down except around ports, but France's secularism ever since the Revolution promoted loose morals, allowing syphilis free reign among the population. The population stagnation relative to other nations left France relatively defenseless, with the result that Britain and the US were dragged into defending it. Also, it meant that not many Americans are of French immigrant extraction relative to other ethnic groups. However, the Catholic church hierarchy in the US has a strong contingent, but only because the revolutionaries chased much of the clergy out of France at the end of the 18th C.:

Quote: In fact, the preoccupation with the effect on birth rate came from an actual depopulation of France at the end of the 19th century and from the bordering nations, especially Germany, victorious of the Prussian French war in 1870. Affecting the physical integrity, syphilis deprived the nation of the future soldiers indispensable for the revengful projects. Xenophobic considerations completed the military preoccupations. Considering the decrease of population supposed to be a consequence of syphilis, the most active people in the struggle against syphilis pointed out the constrasting increase of foreign workers, indispensable to replace the missing French people and regarded  as ennemies of the nation.