I was reading the news release about Concordia Seminary, St. Louis, selling the former Christian Brothers school next door - for a loss. We bought our house from someone under the same circumstance. The woman could not afford her purchase and had to sell to pay off debts.
The dominoes are falling. I knew several Christian Brothers at Notre Dame. They are a teaching order, famous for their schools. My classmate is now president of their main college, which is in dire economic straits. The Roman Catholics began selling off newly remodeled and expanded properties after Vatican II, when the supply of priests, nuns, and students nosedived.
Many of us were sure that Concordia's expansion plans included taking over the Ft. Wayne seminary and moving it, in the name of economics. Schwan money paid for millions in remodeling at St. Louis and about $22 million for the Christian Brothers school. Apparently that was just a bridge loan. Concordia will incur millions in losses to sell their white elephant to Washington University, a first-rate school in St. Louis.
Stupid in - buying the property. Stupid out - selling for a loss.
My guess is this - St. Louis does not need to absorb Ft. Wayne because the Fort will probably close due to shrinking enrollment. Hence, as the news release admits, there is already plenty of room at the St. Louis campus. Buildings are expensive. Anyone with a home will gladly describe the current repairs needed just to keep it going. We need a half-roof, not exactly a crisis during a drought, but the cost is hanging over our heads (bad pun). Buying a half-roof will be our peak experience for the year.
Someone else noticed that the WWII expansion boom churches would hit their repair bill peaks around 2000 and later. Fifty year old buildings have plenty of problems, and the law makes repairs even more frightening. The Christian Brothers had asbestos in their buildings, expensive to clean out. They pulled a fast one on Concordia, selling a liability for millions in cash. Lutherans enjoy being a day late and a dollar short.
A friend of mine was a millionaire in real estate, before the mortgage crisis. Now he owes $5 million more than he has in assets. When the credit crisis hit, the property values all went down together. Now every building is a pain, not an asset.
Summing up, all the school buildings are dragging down every entity owning them. The property is a problem. So are the health benefits. If one sector of the budget expands faster than the cost of living, that part of the budget drives the whole cash flow problem. A small church with a small school has a huge problem. A large church with a large school has a crisis. A synod with one or more schools has a disaster incubating.
Remember, it was Ur-Ichabod who predicted the future of ELCA in 1987, 20 years before it all happened. WELS and Missouri leaders cringed to have their favorite bedmates criticized. Now they are quick to distance themselves from ELCA's Lavender Mafia. Both synods have their own members of that Mafia, but no one is supposed to know that.
Some scenarios - conjured with the help of East Coast and other savants:
1. MLS will fold first, as the smaller of two preps. GM is melting down and going on strike. The Michigan economy looks less than bouncy.
2. Luther Prep will hang on a little longer, but that school will fold too. Both properties will be liabilities.
3. MLC needs the preps to keep going, so MLC must go after the preps. College duties can be taken over by Wisconsin Lutheran College, with all the Schwan money. (Look at a map, WELS and ELS have three colleges in a day's drive: New Ulm, Mankato, Milwaukee.
4. Mequon will shrink in enrollment but not in overhead. In ten years, as District Pope Seifert said, "We will be lucky to keep the seminary. WELS will look completely different than it does now."
Long live the Church Growth Movement, hating schools in the name of missions, doing nothing but talk about missions, its scrofulous hands reaching out for more money to do God's will.
